Scientific Research Suggests Struggling Germany Can Win Cup

The day after Jürgen Klinsmann's team were thrashed 4-1 by the Azzurri, a Cologne-based scientific research body released a study which countered the pummeling Germany were getting in the press by saying the team has every chance of clinching World Cup glory on home turf later this year

If the statisticians at the IW Institute are to be believed, the benefits of home advantage could help the stumbling hosts lift their first World Cup since 1990. Factors such as the crowd, the surroundings and the expectation could not only give Germany a twelfth man on the pitch but could also add up to added impetus to get through the qualifying rounds.

Home crowd, familiarity and preparation valuable assets

"The reasons for success at home are legion: euphoric fans, familiar environment, meticulous preparation," the institute report states, adding that the home team had won a third of all World Cups since the inaugural tournament in 1930. "In addition, the host nation qualifies and goes into the draw for the finals automatically. That means (as a seeded nation) they often face easy opponents in the group phase."

While Germany were being picked off by a confident Italian side in Florence, their Group A opponents were not fairing well either. Costa Rica went down 3-2 away to Iran, Poland lost 1-0 to the United States in Kaiserslautern and Ecuador were defeated by the same score away to the Netherlands. None, however, fared as badly as Germany did.

This should not be a problem come June and July, according to the IW Institute. Of the World Cups Germany has taken part in, the team on average has the quarter- or semi-finals. Factoring into this an average boost of 2.5 rounds from hosting the tournament compared with playing away and the statisticians can see Michael Ballack holding the trophy aloft on July 9 before a rapturous German public.

Playing at home can boost average performance

While this takes a small suspension of belief at the moment, there are precedents on which this calculation is based. In 1998, France advanced 4.5 rounds further than their average performance when they rode the wave of home support to beat Brazil in the final in the Stade de France.

Other winners at home like England and Uruguay also went 4.5 rounds further than the average when they won the World Cup at home, in 1930 and 1966 respectively.

And then there is the small matter of German history. The last time the World Cup was held on German soil in 1974 West Germany beat the Netherlands in the final.

An example of science overcoming reason? We will have to wait and see.