Poland's Political Future
October 22, 2007
These were the most important parliamentary elections since the fall of communism 18 years ago. And since voter turnout topped 50 percent for the first time in 14 years, many Poles apparently thought so, too.
The electorate appears to have punished the Law and Justice party of the two Kaczynski brothers severely for poisoning political life in Poland, for creating an atmosphere of suspicion and adopting an aggressive tone. Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska), a party with a free-market philosophy, emerged as the victor because it understood that the majority could not be won over with the ideology and the language of the Kaczynskis. It has learned to tell voters what they want to hear. It made attractive electoral pledges and went with the patriotic-conservative flow, hiding its free-market policies.
There is a lot of evidence that the Polish parliament will be able to live with less populism. Two parties that were part of the governing coalition until recently failed to make it over the 5 percent threshold to get into parliament. After voters delivered a slap on the wrist to the ultra-Roman Catholic League of Polish Families and the radical rural-based Self-Defense party, there is hope that it is only a question of time before the political landscape recovers. However, outgoing Polish Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski and his squad will ensure that populism does not disappear from parliament, since their parties will still be represented there.
The true challenges await the victor on the domestic stage and not in the sphere of foreign policy. The government will probably be made up of a coalition between Civic Platform and the liberal-conservative Peasants' Party. Together they will have to reform the health service and patch up the ailing pension system. Very little was said about that in the election.
German-Polish relations look set to benefit from the change of government. The Kaczynski brothers' party neglected dialogue with Germany and at times even refused to sit down at the table. That is likely to change.
Hubert Wohlan works for DW-RADIO's Polish service (jg)