Re-starting talks

Following the latest round of talks in Moscow on Wednesday, Russian and Iranian officials said they were optimistic that Moscow's "step-by-step" plan to solve the crisis over Iran's atomic program can bring the two sides back to the table for the first time since talks collapsed in Istanbul in January.

However, following talks with his Russian counterpart, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said a final resolution was still a long way off and that his country would not be pressured.

The so-called step-by-step approach, which is based on Iran being rewarded with the easing of sanctions in exchange for more transparency over the state of its atomic progress, was put to US President Barack Obama by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in July.

The US - a member of the 5+1 along with Russia, China, Britain and France, plus Germany - has long suspected that Iran is using its pursuit of a civilian nuclear energy program to cover up a secret weapons program. It has refused to take pre-emptive strikes off the agenda if Tehran continues to develop what it believes to be a military atomic capability.

Iran has consistently denied that it is pursuing a nuclear weapons capability but has doggedly defended its right to develop an atomic program for non-military purposes.

Russia's special relationship with Tehran may be the only way to crack a deadlock which most analysts believe to be past resolving.

Russian influence

Despite supporting the fourth round of UN sanctions against Tehran which were launched in June 2010, Russia does not consider Iran an enemy.

In addition to opposing the sometimes belligerent rhetoric aimed at Iran and unilateral measures taken against it by the US and the European Union, Moscow is actively involved with Tehran in helping to develop its nuclear program. Iran's first atomic power plant at Bushehr on the Gulf coast was built with technology and help from Russia.

"The Russian approach is the main chance of success for the 5+1," Dr. Sami Al Faraj, president of the Kuwait Center for Strategic Studies, told Deutsche Welle.

"Only Russian pressure can pay off because Russia not only provides the technology for Iran's nuclear program but runs the program too. Iran claims it as a national success but it's essentially a Russian project. Russia holds the keys to where the program goes."

However, Dr Al Faraj believes that even Russia may find it hard to revive negotiations which have been described as "dead in the water."

"For the 5+1, there is no rush to start talking again," he said. "They can see that Iran is under internal and external pressure and that the situation is worsening. Iran can't expand its influence - it has tried and failed - so they will wait and see what changes this could inspire in Iran."

Less support?

The raft of sanctions against Iran is adding to that pressure, regardless of what Iranian President Ahmadinejad claims. Recent reports suggest that those sanctions targeting the country's banking sector are beginning to bite into the economy. As such, a plan which eases these sanctions in return for greater transparency may appeal to Tehran.

"The Russians are the closest ally Iran has," Anthony Seaboyer, an expert on transatlantic relations and nuclear policy at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told Deutsche Welle.

"Most importantly Russia has been backing up Iran in the UN Security Council, at least most of the time," he added. "This gives Russia a very prominent role in dealing with Iran. But the past has shown that this role does not automatically bring success with it as the Iranians have turned down Russian proposals in the past."

Seaboyer believes that Russia may be better off threatening to take away its backing for Iran in the UN and even bring their trade relations and export of technology to Iran into the equation. "Iran can hardly afford to lose this support," he said. "If this form of cooperation was really at stake it would definitely raise attention in Iran."

Enrichment obstacle

Should the Russians succeed in bringing the two sides back to the table, they could find themselves once again butting up against the major issue which has scuppered numerous attempts at mediation in the past: uranium enrichment.

Under a UN Security Council resolution, Iran is required to stop all enrichment of uranium, something it refuses to do by claiming that, as a signatory of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, it is allowed to enrich uranium for electricity production and medical applications.

Rather than bowing to UN pressure, Iran has actually increased its uranium enrichment program over the last year and has raised the level of enrichment to 20 percent from the 3.5 percent purity needed for normal power plant fuel.

It has also moved its production to an underground facility, presumably to protect it from any military strike coming from the US or a similarly concerned Israel. This has added to the Western suspicion that Iran has something to hide.

Iran would more than likely require an agreement over its right to pursue enrichment for peaceful purposes as a precursor to any new talks. With Russia and China in opposition to their 5+1 partners on a number of issues regarding Iran's ambition, Tehran would presumably attempt to secure their support on this before agreeing to any possible future discussions.

High price

Whether Russia will accept this is a matter of debate. Some analysts believe that Russia's willingness to engage on Tehran's behalf masks an agenda in Moscow based on increasing the Kremlin's influence in Iran.

"Russia wants a success in Iran so it can do a number of things: prove it can make positive diplomatic contributions, show it has loyalty to its business clients, advertise its successful technology to other potential customers, especially in the Gulf, and keep its competitors in the region at bay," Dr. Al Faraj said.

Even if the Russians convince Iran and the 5+1 to give it one more go, Dr. Al Faraj believes that there will be no room for further failure. If the talks break down again, the outcome could be very bleak.

"If talks fail again then Iran will look to deflect from its failures by looking for a fight, either a skirmish with Israel or a war in the Gulf," he said.

"The regime needs to show it is either a leader in war or a leader in a successful peace. But with failures to influence movements throughout the region, failures to predict uprisings, failures to convince at home - the regime will have to deliver something. If it's not success, it'll be war."

Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Rob Mudge