Election Surprise?

Alexander Rahr is a Russia expert and the director of the Russian/Eurasia Program at the German Council on Foreign Relations. He spoke with DW-WORLD.DE on Thursday, Nov. 22, days before opposition activists were arrested by Russian security forces.

DW-WORLD.DE: The winners of the upcoming parliamentary elections are already known. So what is there still to be excited about?

Alexander Rahr: The election will show how much support [President Vladimir] Putin still has from the electorate. And when you see that other parties in Russia are now able to advertise, the outcome will not reach 80 percent. Putin's United Russia Party will be happy with a 55 percent majority, just like many polls are forecasting.

Theoretically there is only one opposition in Russia. It would be practical to hinder them as much as possible, for example by denying them the right to assemble. What kinds of difficulties is the opposition still fighting against?

In the past two weeks the situation has improved slightly. There are five recognized parties in Russia and these are all allowed to partake in the election. They will also be reported upon and will not be abused. Actually I think the opposite will happen. For the Kremlin it is important that Putin's United Russia Party does not rule alone. The parties that will continue to be harassed are the small splinter parties on the left and right.

When someone clicks through Russian television channels, how often does one see an opposition candidate?

Of course Putin is seen on TV just about as much as the chancellor [Angela Merkel]. Politicians in the opposition or those who are not in the parliament will be marginalized. Of course the mainstream media will report about United Russia. Putin's party has all the opportunity in the world to be seen throughout television while the other parties have to fight for exposure.

How many political programs are being broadcast in the run-up to the election?

First, one has to distinguish between the news programs that everyone watches and the talk shows that no one watches. But I am actually really surprised that apparently an order has come from the Kremlin to show the election on television as much has possible. Not a day goes by when either the Communists or the liberal parties are not in the headlines. No one can say that the opposition has been totally hidden and that the election will be a farce. Of course we have to wait and see how the results are counted in the end. But my opinion is that the election will be fairer than the one that took place in 2003.

Right now election observers are in Russia in order to watch the elections. In the last election Russia invited some 1,200 observers but this time it has invited only 300. Can this smaller number of observers get an overview of the election process?

It is true that not just Russia, but also Poland, Kazakhstan or Ukraine reject election observers because they believe that the observing turns into an inquisition. These countries have the self-confidence now to say: "We want to build up our system without the West." Russia did not invite election observers for exactly that reason.

But to western eyes it looks like Russia is trying to cover up something.

Russia is not a democracy and whoever says the opposite surely has their head in the clouds! But the times are past, such as in the 1990s, when you could coerce the country with a wag of your finger. They think that 15 years of indoctrination is enough. That is why they have reacted -- in my opinion of course -- aggressively to the call to allow more election observers. But Russia's attitude can be understood when we take into consideration what kinds of preconceived notions western observers bring to Russia.

On that point, how would you describe the election in Russia?

It is a referendum on Putin's popularity.

So what would you wish to happen in the election?

I would wish for a televised debate between Putin and [Gennady] Zyuganov from the Communist Party and the businessman [Grigory] Yavlinsky from the liberal Yabloko Party -- one day before the election.