Political Rumble

Bavaria is generally a rather placid place, with well-kept cities and quietly humming factories and a calm political landscape at odds with the dramatic natural scenery.

But now the state's dominant political party, the conservative Christian Social Union (CSU), has been thrown into an unusual uproar as two leading figures publicly duke it out for the party's leadership position, which recently became open.

Edmund Stoiber, premier of Bavaria since 1993 and CSU party chairman since 1999, announced last week he would step down from his positions at the end of September. Although just weeks earlier he had had no intention of ending his career this year, he lost the trust of his party after an aid snooped into the private life of a regional CSU politician. Stoiber's fumbling of the affair made one-time allies suspect his political instincts had faded and he had become a liability.

But as the party has tried to pick up the wreckage and move on, it has experienced several new crashes. Two politicians vying for the chairmanship have created two opposing camps, formed various alliances and created the conditions for a possible split in the sister party of Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union. The German media is calling it "chaos."

"We are probably in the biggest party crisis we have experienced since our founding," said Horst Seehofer, current federal agriculture minister and one of the candidates for the party's top job.

Much ado…?

Some might consider all this a tempest in a teacup, since democracies generally have two or more candidates striving for one post. But the CSU has always considered party unity to rank above all else -- and the only way to win at the polls. Down-and-dirty internal party rumbling, like that often seen amongst the more fractious Social Democrats or members of the Left Party, has been anathema up to now to the Bavarian conservatives.

"This crisis is completely homemade, because only the CSU would have a problem with two men going for one position," said Jürgen Falter, a professor of political science at the University of Mainz. "If the party doesn't have everything completely organized, it's considered anarchy."

However, it's exactly that kind of lock-step march requirement that helped bring Edmund Stoiber down. While he is credited with governing over a period of solid economic growth in Bavaria -- the region is now one of Germany's wealthiest -- his autocratic style and top-down decision-making is seen as helping foment the revolt that forced his exit.

The contenders

One part of the transition to the post-Stoiber era has been smooth. Günther Beckstein, the current Bavarian interior minister, is expected to become state premier when Stoiber packs up his desk at the end of September.

The current fight is over Stoiber's other role, party chairman, and is between Agriculture Minister Seehofer and Bavaria's economics minister, Erwin Huber.

Seehofer is considered by many the "Robin Hood of the average Joe," more concerned with matters such as social justice and welfare, according to Heinrich Oberreuter, a CSU member and professor of political science at the University of Passau.

Huber is seen by many as an economic liberal, and was instrumental in pushing through Stoiber's economic policies, which many say have been key to Bavaria's current robust financial health.

Beckstein has publicly backed Huber, but that has not led to Seehofer withdrawing his candidacy.

Surprisingly perhaps, especially for a conservative party with "Christian" in its name, a report in the tabloid Bild about a long-term relationship between Seehofer, 57, and a woman in her early 30s, who is now four months pregnant, has not played large in the debate over his fitness for the top party spot.

Calm needed

Edmund Stoiber has called for major players in the current row to gather on Friday for a crisis session, during which a way out of the turbulent waters can hopefully be found.

According to Oberreuter, party leaders need to find an amicable solution to the public bickering, or the public might get the impression that the CSU is coming apart at the seams and migrate to other parties, a phenomenon that researchers have already noticed.

"The party doesn't want an American-style primary campaign that will just increase the acrimony and set up entrenched opposing camps," he said.

But political scientist Falter said what the CSU is experiencing could be good for it and party politics in the long run. He said the CSU tradition of decisions being made at the top and then simply announced from on high to the party's base is not what most people want or true democracy calls for.

"We already have too much oligarchy and not enough democracy," he said. "This could lead to a strengthening of the CSU base and give the overall party more life."

Many in the CSU just want to get the chaos behind them. Otherwise, according to one high-ranking party official, calls will start going out along the lines of: "Edmund, please stay!"