Opinion: Critical Period in the Democratic Republic of Congo

The sooner a stable political situation is established in this country torn asunder by civil war, the better. The recent election could mark the beginning of a new and, hopefully, democratic era. But it has resulted in a dangerous power vacuum, since the man who has been transitional president up to now, Joseph Kabila, has been just another candidate since the beginning of the campaign, one of 32.

Even though the vote count has reduced the number of presidential hopefuls to two -- Kabila and Jean-Pierre Bemba -- the tension between their claims on power and the legitimate power that election law grants them carries with it big risks. The longer there is a lack of leadership in DR Congo, the more nervous the soldiers in the various private armies active in the country become.

It's good there's no clear winner

Despite that, one should be glad that there was no clear winner in the first stage of this historic election, no matter how absurd that may sound. If Joseph Kabila (who got around 45 percent of the vote) had not only come out in the lead but also won an absolute majority, the capital Kinshasa and other parts of the country would have likely had to go to a state of emergency just after the announcement.

In that case, what happened on Sunday evening (shooting broke out in the capital on Sunday, killing at least five people) would have been described in comparison as a harmless skirmish. The entire western part of the country would probably not have accepted a Kabila victory -- especially not at this early stage. The country could have been divided along ethnic and geographic lines even more strongly than before.

Jean-Pierre Bemba, who comes from the province of Equateur, presented himself as a true son of the nation with his perfect command of Lingala (the language widely spoken in the country's north) and at the same time highlighted suspicions about Kabila's suspected Rwandan or Tanzanian origins. The calculus worked. The east, on the other hand, which for years has been the centerpiece of a bloody war, voted for Kabila because he was able to end the fighting there.

Careless Europeans

At least as careless as Bemba's ethnic-nationalist and sometimes racist campaign was the behavior of the Europeans, especially Development Commissioner Louis Michel, whose Belgian nationality already put him in an awkward position.

The fact that he clearly backed the current president, Kabila, before the vote at the end of July will never be forgiven by the people in the west or in the capital, a stronghold of Bemba support. His statements have damaged the relationship of the Congolese to Europe. They also contributed to the fact that the election commission was by many not seen as independent, but as a western vassal which had been mustered by order and with money from the West to keep Kabila in office.

Mistrust is growing

The word "neo-colonization" is already in circulation and one can see in Kinshasa that a certain mistrust of Europe is growing. Had Kabila secured a victory in the first round, it would likely have become very uncomfortable for the UN peacekeepers stations in the country.

Have the divisions and even battles just been postponed a little, just like the final decision on the president? Maybe -- but in this case, it's important to play for time. And one can only hope that time is on the right side of power: that a parliament is quickly formed, and that for the upcoming run-off the situation is more stable than it is now, as a democracy struggles to establish itself. One hopes that for the Congolese, because right now, there is no other choice.

Alexander Göbel is an Africa expert with Deutsche Welle Radio. He covered the first stage of the election from DR Congo. (jam)