Broken ties
October 11, 2011
"China’s rise has had an enormous impact on the spectrum of international relationships at global and regional levels, and is one of the most important strategic developments of the past 15 years," according to a recent SIPRI report titled "China’s Energy and Security Relations with Russia." The study points out that relations between the two are "crumbling," as distrust between the two has been growing for the past decade. Nonetheless, during Putin’s meeting with Hu Jintao there is sure to be an exchange of friendly words, as both Beijing and Moscow tend to feign good relations in public. Yet behind the scenes, both ambitious countries are relentlessly competing for regional dominance and international influence.
China’s increasing influence in the world has contributed to a change in the balance of global power. "China’s growing global power is regarded in Beijing as a complicating factor for the ‘partnership between equals,’" the report adds. Bilateral cooperation and trade is diminishing, especially in the field of energy and arms. In 2010, imports from Russia accounted for a mere 6 percent of China’s total oil imports, the report’s authors write.
Lack of trust
Paul Holtom, coauthor of the SIPRI study and senior researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme sees a big change in cooperation with regard to arms sales. Between 1991 and 2010, an estimated 90 percent of China’s imported major conventional weapons were supplied by Russia, yet that is changing quickly. A major problem, Holtom points out, is the quantity of arms sold. Russia is more interested in selling in bulk, yet Beijing has not made a large purchase since 2005. Moscow also fears the Chinese will try and copy the technology. "The Russian reticence now is I think that they’re unwilling to transfer technologies of their more advanced systems. When it starts to come to requests for technology, or a purchase of a small quantity, then Russian concerns, I think, are up."
Since the EU and the US have not lifted their weapons embargoes on China, there are only a few contenders who can cooperate with the Asian giant. As China’s military power and international influence grow, so does its desire for new technologies and its wish for a modern military, not only for its own purposes but also for participation in the world market. Huang He, professor at Shanghai University’s Institute of International Studies, believes China’s answer is clear: Either Russia offers to sell technologically advanced weaponry or China will turn to other suppliers. He believes China has been dependent on Russian arms for far too long. "The Ukraine can also deliver some weapons," Huang suggests.
When it comes to securing its energy supply, Beijing does not put all its eggs in one basket. China is now the largest consumer of energy. Yet Russia’s oil exports to its resource-hungry neighbor have decreased drastically within the last five years. Now Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iran and Oman have become China’s largest suppliers of oil. China has also found new partners for natural gas in Central Asia.
Feigning cooperation
Experts are not surprised over conflicts of interest between China and Russia as the two hardly have shared values. One thing they have in common, however, is their aversion to a United States-led unipolar world, as could be seen in the latest UN Security Council resolution on Syria. But while such cooperation is based on their "strategic cooperative partnership," the foundation of their relationship is "eroding, and Russia’s significance to China will continue to diminish," according to the SIPRI study.
A recent poll has found that 13 percent of Russians see China as the country’s main threat. A similar survey carried out by the Russian Public Opinion Foundation a decade ago showed that only eight percent of the population thought its giant neighbor could end up becoming a threat. Experts say the main reason for the growing distrust is China’s rise as an economic and military power.
Author: Yuhan Zhu / sb
Editor: Grahame Lucas