Two years on

It was a remarkable moment. During a recent visit to Argentina, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced triumphantly that his country "has returned to South America" and would seek close cooperation with its inhabitants. He finished, surprisingly, by snubbing what could only be interpreted as the United States.

"No one has a monopoly on the truth. Therefore I hope that this won't bother anyone," he said, before adding: "And if it does bother anyone, well, we don't give a damn."

The strong language Medvedev used was a rare example of an attempt to copy the style of his predecessor Vladimir Putin, the current Russian prime minister, who is notorious for his tough talk.

When he took office two years ago, the then 42-year-old Medvedev raised expectations in some circles that his youth and his non-KGB background would make a difference and that Russia might see a "thaw," as in the late 1980s under Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, giving way to more political and press freedom.

"He definitely has a different background than Putin, a different style and a different manner," said Masha Lipman, a political analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Center. "He comes across as a modern man and emphasizes his infatuation with the Internet. No question, he's different, but it should be remembered that Putin wanted him this way, otherwise Putin would have picked somebody else."

Good cop, bad cop

The answer may be that Medvedev, a lawyer, could be presented as the more benevolent face of Russia and thus improve the country's image abroad. But during Medvedev's first year in office Russia fought a brief war against Georgia, during which he was forced to act as a strongman.

The subsequent improvement in relations with the West, through cooperation with the United States on Afghanistan and the signing of a new strategic arms treaty, could not conceal the fact that, underneath, Medvedev's Russia was essentially the same as under his predecessor. Indeed, according to opinion polls, most Russians still consider Vladimir Putin the real leader of their country.

"Medvedev comes across very differently from Putin," said Lipman. "At the same time the policy has remained unchanged. Domestic policies have certainly remained unchanged, and it's hardly a secret to anyone that the most important decisions are taken by Putin, not by Medvedev."

Russian democracy

Now, halfway through Medvedev's presidential term, the next presidential elections to be held in 2012 are already looming on the horizon. Both Medvedev and Putin have already said they might take part in this election.

"Is it bad that two citizens have already announced that they will take part in the election?" Medvedev asked in a recent interview on Danish television. "I am convinced that there will be other people who'll say that they too will take part. What's wrong with that? That is democracy."

Medvedev added that Putin and he would decide between themselves who would eventually become the candidate.

"Putin and I represent the same political force," he said. "We share similar ideas about the development of the country. I want to remind you that I worked together with Vladimir Putin as the head of his administration and in the government he appointed. He and I represent a common political approach, and coordination and consultations between us are simply necessary."

Extended tenure

Even though Medvedev has been stressing the need for modernization and diversification of the Russian economy throughout his presidency, the perspective of crucial reforms remains vague. Experts expect little or no change until the election of 2012. Even after that it is highly uncertain whether the country's leaders will want to risk a change in the political status quo by pushing through reforms.

The stakes in the upcoming election are high. One of the first things Medvedev did after he took office was to have the Russian constitution changed. From the next election onwards, the presidential term will be six years instead of four.

"Whoever of the two runs has a good chance of staying another twelve years, maintaining the same status quo, with an emasculated system of checks and balances, with no political competition and political opposition reduced to irrelevance," said Lipman. "This is how the system has evolved under Putin. And apparently the desire is to maintain this system as long as possible."

Author: Geert Groot Koerkamp

Editor: Martin Kuebler