Quiet shift?

China's stance appears decisive at climate talks in Durban as ministers from around the world prepare to take over the high-level end of negotiations on Tuesday.

Attention has been fixed on the fate of the world's only legally binding treaty to cut carbon dioxide emissions, the Kyoto Protocol, amid deep divisions over whether to extend the agreement when its first commitment period expires next year.

On Monday, China's chief negotiator Xie Zhenua was quoted on a government-run website as saying that his country was open to post 2020 targets to curb emissions, a policy that would mark a significant shift in the country's negotiating position.

In her assessment of the talks, UN climate chief Christiana Figueres described last week's negotiations as "constructive and productive" without elaborating on concrete gains.

"There are no promises because all of this is still a work in progress," Figueres told reporters on Monday.

She said it was her understanding that countries were "very seriously considering how do they bring a second commitment period into effect, and not whether."

EU searches for partners

The European Union has indicated it is willing to increase its emissions target to 30 percent below 1990 levels as part of a second round of Kyoto.

EU Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard said the bloc had so far "over-achieved" its target and did not stand in the way of a more ambitious deal.

The EU currently aims to cut emissions by 20 percent by the end of the decade. Europe's raised target rested on other parties making their pledges binding.

In the face of Canadian, Japanese and Russian opposition to Kyoto in its current form, Hedegaard said the EU "supported" the treaty but needed to see countries like China embrace a timetable for accepting binding emissions cuts.

Critics of Kyoto point out that it does not cover the world's two biggest emitters, China and the United States, and that developing countries outside the treaty's rules account for a growing proportion of the world's emissions.

China to lead?

China's massive investment in renewable energies and efficiency measures, anchored in its latest five-year plan, have prompted some to hope that it will accept limits on its emissions, even though it has historically contributed little to climate change compared to rich countries.

Hedegaard said much of the talks hinged on just how willing China was to accept binding rules in coming years.

"China has always been in favor of a legally binding outcome, the key question…is: Will a legally binding deal also mean that China is equally legally bound?" Hedegaard said.

China's indication that it could be willing to accept rules after 2020 may not be enough for the world's emissions to peak this decade, the scenario that scientists say will be necessary if the planet is to stand a reasonable chance of limiting warming to two degrees Celsius this century.

China or India will need to move

India is another major emitter in the developing world, which is reluctant to embrace targets because of its low per capita impact and historically low contribution to the problem.

Dirk Messner, head of the German Development Institute, told Deutsche Welle that India or China would have to relax its position for the world to move forward.

"The United States is not in a political situation to to do anything about climate change at the moment," said Messner, who also sits on the German Advisory Council on Global Change, an independent body that advises government.

"We need one of the other big emitters and that can only be China or India. Without these countries on board, it won't be possible to limit warming to two degrees Celsius."

A parallel process

Messner said real progress on tackling global warming might have to take place outside the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations, which require consensus from some 194 parties.

He said if a cross-section of rich and developing countries like "Europe, China, India, Vietnam South Africa" were to start rowing in the same direction, it would "signal to others that a significant portion of the global economy were moving in a certain direction, and that would spur the UN process."

Other significant areas of negotiation in the final days of talks include the potential green lights for a Climate Fund and a scheme for promoting forestry protection.

Author: Helle Jeppesen (nw)
Editor: John Blau