Moscow meet Berlin
July 19, 2011
If it were up to Chancellor Angela Merkel to decide who would be Russian President from 2012, it has been suggested that Prime Minister Vladimir Putin would have little chance.
Merkel has a strong preference for Dmitry Medvedev and, according to former German Foreign Office Minister of State Gernot Erler, she prefer him to remain president ahead of Putin.
The chancellor's dealings with Putin have often been strained, maintains Erler. This is not only because of the former president's past in the Russian secret service, but also her difficulties in dealing with a political system dominated by him.
His system of "guided democracy" and his centralized power structure does not sit comfortably with Merkel, who herself lived under Communist rule in the former East Germany.
President Medvedev, on the other hand, has shown a support for greater democracy and rule of law that has been welcomed enthusiastically in Berlin. Intergovernmental consultations between Germany and Russia are hardly any more meaningful as a result, but they are warmer.
There is also a certain chemistry between Merkel and Medvedev, at least according to sources close to the chancellor. In Yekaterinburg, where a previous summit took place in 2010, the chancellor and president talked after dinner until late into the night. "Dear Dmitry" and "Dear Angela," as the pair referred to each other at a summit press conference, were able to communicate largely without a translator. Medvedev spoke to Merkel in English, while Merkel spoke Russian to Medvedev. This year's negotiations in Hanover might be just as relaxed.
Powerful economic factors
Domestic issues have been the major concern in recent times in both Berlin and Moscow, according to Professor Hans-Henning Schröder of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. The expert on Russian affairs believes that economic issues will play a central role in the discussions. More than 6,000 German businesses are active in Russia.
The value of German exports rose in the first quarter of 2011 to 7.4 billion euros ($10.45 billion) - an increase of 42 percent. Imports from Russia climbed to 9.5 billion euros. And the two countries are set to make new records, according to Eckhard Cordes, chairman of the Eastern Committee of German business.
Several top business managers are expected to join Merkel and Medvedev on Tuesday morning for an "economic breakfast," with Volkswagen chairman Martin Winterkorn among them.
And it's no accident that the summit is taking place in Hanover, where the company has its base. In the first half of the year, Volkswagen sold some 45,000 cars in Russia. The brand has succeeded in doubling its sales and Winterkorn is keen to make the most of the Russian market.
The firm's existing plant in Kaluga, southwest of Moscow, will not be able to cover the Russian demand for the cars. In the future, Volkswagen is also set to have cars built at a factory belonging to the Russian car builder GAZ.
Gazprom's push west
The significance of Russia as a supplier of energy is set to grow as a result of Germany's move away from nuclear power, according to Christian Democrat politician Philipp Missfelder. The mutual advantages of this must be clear to the Kremlin, the lawmaker has claimed.
Russian gas giant Gazprom has seized an opportune moment to expand in Germany and has already agreed on a strategic partnership with the German power supplier RWE. The firms are set to work together, for example, in building coal and gas power stations.
Medvedev, who directed Gazprom under Putin for several years, would be particularly pleased with such deals. The high dependency on Russian energy exports may be a source of concern to Germany, but in comparison to certain suppliers - such as Libya - Russia is relatively unproblematic.
It is believed that Merkel is also keen to further promote reforms in Russia, with a view to strengthening liberal values. But previous enthusiasm for the reforming agenda of Medvedev appears to have dwindled - with values such as human rights and press freedom remaining an issue under Medvedev. Former head of the power firm Yukos Mikhail Khodorkovsky remains in jail despite his conviction being condemned abroad. And the murders of several journalists have gone unresolved.
Social issues and that critical question
The failure of the president to follow up on previous promises of reform has not gone unnoticed. The chancellor makes meetings with human rights activists a part of her agenda on almost all of her trips to Russia. The Petersburg Dialogue, a forum to address such social issues between the countries, will take place alongside the visit.
"It is quite clear that the chancellor has a good understanding with Medvedev," reiterates Erler. But that does not mean that thorny issues such as human rights will not be discussed.
But one question on everybody's mind - whether Medvedev will run for the presidency - is not likely to be answered. At least not for the time being.
Author: Viacheslav Yurin / rc
Editor: Ben Knight