Plan B for Belarus

The recent renewed crackdown on peaceful protestors in Belarus indicates President Alexander Lukashenko has no intention of allowing opposition momentum to grow into an actual revolution. Yet with the economic crisis only getting worse, anything is possible.

Extreme situations almost always lead to change of those in power, according to Eastern Europe expert Alexander Rahr from the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). But the European Union simply does not have a plan for such a scenario, he said.

"The EU is as unprepared for Belarus as it was for the events in North Africa or the so-called Orange Revolution in Ukraine," he said.

One problem, according Jörg Forbrig, an expert with the German Marshall Fund, is that in order to act, the EU member nations must reach consensus on the issue, which is often difficult to achieve.

Developing contacts

Some experts believe that Brussels' room for maneuvering might be quite limited. The DGAP's Rahr warned about the fact that the EU currently only supports the current Belarusian opposition.

"But these are not the people who have the support of the people," Rahr said. "And they're not in the position to bring about a change at the top, neither through revolution nor through evolution."

Others disagree. Lauras Bielinis is a political scientist at the University of Vilnius, in neighboring Lithuania, where many opposition figures have fled. He thinks close contact with the opposition could be a crucial asset for the EU, especially if the opposition ends up running the country.

Rahr, on the other hand, said he doesn't even dare to imagine such a scenario yet.

"But if that were to happen, then the people who would end up in positions of power are those that are already part of the state structures," he said. "They're in the ministries, particularly the security forces, or among the regional leaders. And the EU has no contact with these people."

An uncertain future

The events in North Africa have demonstrated that riots can break out even in countries where the stability of the regime is accepted without question. And the upheaval in the Arab world has presented the international community with new challenges. What approach does one take with the new people in charge? What should be done about the refugees? How can economic collapse in those countries be prevented?

It isn't just about short-term emergency aid, but also about making sure state structures do not collapse.

"The EU looks at this way: If Minsk is moving towards democracy, then we can help. But if not, then they have to figure out how to cope on their own," Rahr said. "Brussels thus wastes an opportunity to have an influence on where Belarus is headed."

The EU's priority should be to make sure things remain non-violent in Belarus in the case of a revolution, Forbrig said, and to encourage the democratization of the country.

Russia or the EU?

Neither Russia nor the EU have a plan B for the aftermath of a potential revolution in Belarus, according to Forbrig.

If unrest and chaos were to break out in Belarus, the EU would not be ready, said Bielinis. "Many important transport routes run through Belarus, including energy transport between the EU and Russia that could be destroyed."

Neither a destabilized Belarus nor an alliance between Moscow and Minsk is in the interest of the EU, according to Rahr. So Brussels needs a plan B, he said. Rahr thinks it's time the EU showed Belarus that it will hold out a helping hand, if Minsk in return opens its economy to the West.

If Belarus were to take this path, politics in the country would inevitable change as well. "This is exactly what the leadership in Minsk is afraid of," Rahr said. "But the situation is gradually getting desperate. In other words, the longer the crisis lasts, the fewer options those in power have. They'll have to develop closer ties with Russia or with the EU.

Author: Vladimir Dorokhov, Birgit Görtz / hf
Editor: Toma Tasovac