Bid for control

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been at odds with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei since he dismissed his Intelligence Minister Heydar Moslehi last month without consulting Khamenei. The top cleric, in turn, vetoed the decision, insisting Moslehi stay in his post for the "greater interest of the nation."

The Iranian constitution stipulates that the Supreme Leader has the final say on all matters, both state and religious. Though the president is elected in a democratic process, he is expected to show utter obedience toward the orders of the supreme leadership.

"Ahmadinejad overestimated himself," said Mehdi Khalaji, Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Khamenei had firmly supported Ahmadinejad following his 2009 reelection - and the president thought he could use this backing to benefit his political power. He also overvalued the electoral process as such.

"It's a generic miscalculation all presidents in Iran make," Khalaji told Deutsche Welle. "They think because they're elected by the people, they can afford to challenge the Supreme Leader."

Ahmadinejad's predecessors, Mohammad Khatami and Akbar Rafsanjani, had the same problem in their second term in office, says Oliver Borszik from the German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA) in Hamburg.

"It's typically in their second term of office that presidents perceive their limited power," Borszik told Deutsche Welle. "They attempt to demand greater influence but as yet have failed to do so."

Leadership dispute

Khamenei had no choice but to reprimand Ahmadinejad. He had allowed the president's sacking of Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki in December to go through. But Moslehi's dismissal now was too much. Khalaji said the president made the mistake of infringing on Khamenei's domain. The decision on the most prominent cabinet positions lies in the hands of the Supreme Leader.

"Ahmadinejad tried to get his hands on areas which Khamenei controls, such as the Ministry of Intelligence or Foreign Affairs," he said.

Khamenei has been wary of the president's efforts to gain more control politically. In addition, Ahmadinejad's inner circle has attempted to gain religious legitimation for the president - much to the clergy's dislike. According to Borszik, these supporters claim Ahmadinejad is overseeing Iran before the Mahdi or "Hidden Imam" returns to usher in the Islamic day of judgment.

This claim infuriates the conservative clergy - and its Supreme Leader has to ensure that the balance of power is correct, Borszik said.

"It's important to Khamenei that not one particular group get too strong and that is the case with Ahmadinejad and his supporters," he said.

The beginning of the end

Khamenei's reprimand has left the president in a very weak position, analysts agreed. Rouzbeh Parsi from the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) in Paris says it was important that the Supreme Leader made this evident.

"Ahmadinejad simply can't be stronger than Khamenei in this political struggle," Parsi told Deutsche Welle. The question is now, will Ahmadinejad remain in power in his weakened state or be impeached? It is very rare that the Islamic state dismiss a president and Ahmadinejad cannot stand for reelection anyway in the presidential polls in May 2013.

The two elements of the Islamic State - democratic and theocratic - complement one another and are necessary, Borszik said. It was therefore in the interest of the system that Ahmadinejad stay in power. Khamenei is also well aware that someone needs to run the country.

"An impeachment is too harmful for the image of Islamic power," Khalaji said. "We will rather see a lame duck president with limited authority. This is the beginning of the end of Ahmadinejad's political life."

With parliamentary elections coming up in March 2012, Ahmadinejad cannot count on a lot of political support. The rift between himself and both the parliament and hard-line conservatives is widening. The president recently irked parliament by announcing he would streamline his Cabinet, combining eight ministries into four. The parliament insisted it must approve the appointments of the new ministers, but Ahmadinejad refused. Instead, he appointed caretaker ministers, including himself as oil minister, after he had dismissed Oil Minister Masoud Mirkazemi earlier this month.

"He has spent a lot of time ticking people off," Parsi said. "There are a lot of ex-Ahmadinejad fans out there." Many prominent conservatives are now united in their resistance to Ahmadinejad and he can no longer count on the support of his backers.

This means next year's elections will see a lot of finger pointing in the president's direction, Khalaji said.

"It's a golden opportunity for his critics to blame him for everything," he said. "So we're going to have Ahmadinejad with no real authority or close allies. He will play a very marginal role at the end of his term."

Grasping at straws

Though Ahmadinejad went off to sulk after the Moslehi dispute, boycotting cabinet meetings for 11 days, he has made efforts to display harmony - swearing loyalty and rejecting any speculation of differences with Khamenei.

"He is like a father to me," Ahmadinejad said in an interview on state television earlier this month.

Nevertheless, the president is doing his utmost to place his allies in positions of power. He has been shaping his chief-of-staff Esfandiar Mashaei to take over as his successor and run in 2013. He is one of the president's closest confidants and the two men also have personal ties: Ahmadinejad's son is married to Mashaei's daughter.

But the clergy is unhappy about the two men's ties, as Mashaei has downplayed the country's Islamic status instead stressing Iranian nationalism and promoting what the clergy considers too liberal ideas on various issues. Analysts agree that Mashaei stands no chance of becoming a candidate.

The Ya Leserat weekly, the mouthpiece of the ultra-conservative forces, has called for Mashaei's arrest. They consider him the leader of a "deviant" group seeking to rise to power after Ahmadinejad steps down in 2013. Authorities have already arrested up to 25 Ahmadinejad loyalists in recent weeks.

Ahmadinejad's former mentor Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi has suggested that Mashaei is "bewitching" the president.

"I do not know if it is hypnotism, a spell or relations with yogis," Yazdi said in an interview with Shoma Weekly. "But there is something wrong."

Author: Sabina Casagrande
Editor: Rob Mudge