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Rice Enters Middle East Arena With Few Friends for Company

DW staff (nda)July 23, 2006

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice embarks on a high-stakes Middle East mission Sunday, with the United States increasingly estranged from European and Arab allies over the crisis.

https://p.dw.com/p/8qMH
Protesters throughout the Arab world blame the US for its support of Israel's campaignImage: AP

Rice's trip, for talks with the Israeli and Palestinian leaders, and an international conference on the crisis in Rome, comes as more bloodshed in Lebanon spurs mounting calls for a muscular US role to end the fighting.

But her mission will bear little resemblance to the multi-day, multi-city Middle East peace shuttles of some of her predecessors which are part of US diplomatic lore.

"I could have gotten on a plane and rushed over and starting shuttling around and it wouldn't have been clear what I was shuttling to do," Rice said on Friday.

What she will not do, is accept rising demands from European and Arab states for an immediate ceasefire in Israel's battle against Hezbollah, regarding such a step as a "false promise" bound to simply incubate future conflicts.

Washington argues a ceasefire can come only as part of a diplomatic package that sees the disarmament of Hezbollah, guarantees of Israeli security at its northern border and an end to Syrian and Iranian backing of Hezbollah.

"Secretary Rice will make it clear that resolving the crisis demands confronting the terrorist group that launched the attacks and the nations that support it," President George W. Bush said Saturday in his weekly radio address.

Condoleezza Rice zu Iran
Rice is backed by her boss but faces widespread suspicionImage: AP

Washington is taking a broad strategic view of the conflict, sparked when Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers.

It is therefore difficult to see the United States settling for any resolution in which Hezbollah, Syria and Iran are not seen to have suffered a defeat.

Stalwart ally faltering

But the US position appears to becoming increasingly lonely. Faithful US ally Britain Saturday criticized Israel's tactics, and even took a swipe at American strategy.

The British junior foreign minister, Kim Howells, said in Beirut: "I very much hope that the Americans understand what's happening to Lebanon -- the destruction of the infrastructure, the death of so many children and so many people."

Rice will meet Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and also see Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas after arriving on Monday.

In Rome, on Wednesday, she will face desperate Lebanese leaders, UN officials and Europeans demanding a ceasefire and Arab allies who reportedly refused to host her visit, dismayed at US strategy.

But some analysts said qualified progress remained possible.

Hopes for ceasefire follow Rice

"I don't think the Secretary of State would be going to the region unless they were fairly sure that she could accomplish something," said Steven Cook, of the Council on Foreign Relations. "Perhaps it's the framework for the negotiation of a ceasefire."

Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies agreed. "I don't think she would be having a meeting if she didn't know pretty well what the outcome would be, and that outcome I think is going to be a framework for future work."

UN-Truppen im Libanon
A possible UN force may be part of Rice's plan for LebanonImage: picture-alliance / dpa

The eventual shape of a deal seems to be widely accepted and may include some kind of prisoner swap between Israel and Hezbollah, and possibly between Israel and Hamas in the parallel Gaza conflict.

An international force has been mooted to keep Hezbollah and its rocket launchers out of southern Lebanon and out of range of Israel.

But the devil looks to be in the timing.

Crisis not ready for a resolution

Neither Israel nor Hezbollah seem eager to stop fighting. Iran and Syria may have no interest in containing it, and Washington seems content for Israel to continue pounding Hezbollah.

Israel lost in the Fog of War
The fighting continues with neither side willing to stopImage: AP

"There is no question that this (crisis) is not ripe for resolution at this particular moment," said Aaron David Miller, a veteran US Middle East peace negotiator now with the Woodrow Wilson Center.

The scope of US influence is also questioned.

"They don't have any leverage right now over the parties that hold the key to this crisis, Iran, Syria, the Israelis," said Miller.

The Bush administration is also constrained in how much it can lean on Israel, he added.

"They are determined to maintain the moral clarity and consistency of their policy against terror," said Miller. "Israel is on the right side of that line, Hezbollah, plus Iran and Syria are on the wrong side."